Hot spot tracking

  • The monthly rates of PPI and core PPI in the United States were 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively, both higher than expected but the previous values ​​were revised down; the number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose modestly to 230,000 last week. Interest rate futures show that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50BP in September is 39%, which is bearish for the US dollar.
  • The ECB cut interest rates for the second time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, the lowest since June 2023. GDP growth expectations for the next three years have been lowered across the board, and inflation expectations remain unchanged. After the ECB's interest rate decision, EUR/USD rose slightly, and major European stock indices fell. Traders cut their expectations for the ECB's interest rate cuts, and expect another 36 basis points of interest rate cuts before the end of the year. Short-term negative for the euro and European stocks.
  • Affected by the hurricane, about 42% (730,000 barrels per day) of crude oil production facilities and 53% of natural gas production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico have been shut down. Bullish for crude oil and natural gas.

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