Hot spot tracking

  • The Chicago Business Activity Index in the U.S. edged down to 40.4 in June from 40.5 in May, below the expected 43.0, marking the lowest level since January, indicating that economic activity has contracted for 19 consecutive months; the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. This news is bearish for the dollar.
  • Trump: Due to low oil prices, it is expected that (Ukraine) will be able to reach a ceasefire agreement with Russia. This news is bearish for crude oil.
  • Fed's Bostic: I still expect one rate cut this year. Three rate cuts are expected next year, and there is no need to raise interest rates to deal with inflation; Goldman Sachs has moved forward its forecast for Fed rate cuts to September. This news is bearish for the dollar.

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