Hot spot tracking

  • The annual rate of the US unadjusted CPI in August was 2.5%, which was the fifth consecutive month of decline. It hit the lowest level since February 2021 and was lower than the market expectation of 2.6%. The annual rate of the unadjusted core CPI was 3.2%, which was the same as the expectation and the previous value, and had fallen for four consecutive months. A CPI value that is too low may trigger deflation risks. To solve the deflation problem, interest rate cuts are essential, which is bullish for the US dollar in the short term and bearish for the US dollar in the long term.
  • Francine was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane and made landfall in Louisiana, USA. Due to the hurricane, 39% of oil production activities in the Gulf of Mexico have been stopped. US natural gas futures prices rose to a new high since July. Bullish for natural gas.
  • U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by 833,000 barrels in the week ending September 6, lower than the market expectation of 987,000 barrels, but higher than the previous value of a decrease of 6.873 million barrels. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 279,000 barrels to 380 million barrels, the highest since the week ended December 9, 2022. Increased crude oil inventories are bearish for crude oil.

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